Wed, 05 Oct 2011 15:54:00 +0400
Exchange news. The issue of possible default in Greece is extremely topical. Last weekend Athens officially claimed that the country cannot cut its expenditures, as required by the agreements. This, in its turn, casts doubt on the possibility of Greece to receive mutual assistance credit from European Central Bank.
This discouraging claim was followed by a less shocking claim from the European Union management. To be more specific, this claim concerned a temporary suspension with deciding to provide another money tranche to Athens. It had been expected that the decision of providing financial aid would be announced during a special meeting on October 13, but it has just been revealed that there will be no meeting. The decision of providing money trance is expected to be announced during the summit of European Union leaders on October 17.
Unfortunately, this proves that this year Greece is unable to change budget deficit according to the requirements. However, Athens keep worsening their condition by discussing economy measures with ECB, as their main target is to receive 8 mln. Euro from the credit that was confirmed in 2010. Another wave of recession is likely to start because of complicated and lasting negotiations between ECB and Greece. Quotations of Brent and WTI oil futures have immediately reacted to this by a more than 1 dollar decline.
Perspectives of economic growth influence oil price. At this point, signals about countries’ negative development are many. It concerns countries in Europe, the USA, and developing countries, such as China, which eased the loss of world economy in 2008.
Brent grade oil prices are currently checking the support of 101 dollar per barrel, as explained by the analytics of Forex Academy and Masterforex-V Futures Trade and Stock Exchange. This is the fourth attempt for 5 months. Passing the level will make it possible to reach the target of 90 dollars per barrel.
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Some representatives of the international expert community remind us that the Fed is going to go back to discussing the possibility of another interest rate hike in the near future. This discussion is going to take place during the forthcoming FOMC meeting in June. They say that the markets are wrong when expecting the same interest rate for the 4th month in a row.
Not so long ago, a representative of the Saudi King’s was reported to have introduced a new development plan for Saudi Arabia until the year of 2030. It is named Vision 2030. The plan reveals the local authorities’ intention to introduced some fundamental changes to the country’s economy and financial system. They are aware of the serious dependence on crude oil exports, which is why they want to reduce this exposure to the international market of crude oil by making the local economy more diverse and less dependent on the local oil industry, especially amid still low oil prices and great uncertainty dominating today’s financial markets in general and the global oil market in particular.
The members of the Fed’s FOMC left the key interest rate unchanged at 0,25%-0,5% during the latest meeting last week. This is confirmed by the FOMC meeting minutes. To be more specific, the minutes read that the information received since the March meeting clearly indicates that the contemporary labor market is definitely improving and recovering despite the likelihood of another economic slowdown in the USA.
According to Andrey Gudkov, an observer for Deutsche Welle, the oil games played by Saudi Arabia may present danger to Russia and the USA. The be more specific, the observer says that the Saudis are playing dangerous oil games. They have been playing similar games in security and politics. Now they are playing those in macroeconomics. For instance, it was Saudi Arabia who intentionally disrupted the recent oil summit in Doha. On top of that, the Saudis announced their intention to sell tons of U.S. bonds to a stunning amount of $750 billion. Such unexpected steps may undermine financial markets worldwide and eventually affect a number of major and emerging economies, including Russia and the USA.
Low oil prices undermined the status of the Suez Canal. They say most ships find it cheaper to sail around Africa rather than sailing through the Suez Canal. Some market observers believe that the oil market crash resulted in multiple consequences. On top of billions of dollars of lost profits by the world's biggest oil exporters, sailing around Africa is no said to be cheaper than saving time by passing through the Suez Canal.