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Monday, 21 August 11:48 (GMT -05:00)



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Can the military campaign in Libya be considered the beginning of World War III?

Libya

 

As soon as the Western powers started a military campaign in Libya against Muammar Kaddafi, the famous Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovski called it the beginning of World War III. His statements are usually not considered as serious, but this time numerous experts seem to share this point of view. For example, last year George Soros said that the current situation resembled the 1930s. Probably he meant not only the Great Depression but also the series of local conflicts (Spain, Abissinia etc) preceding World War II.
 

Should we really get ready for another major war? If so, then what is going to be the reason: energy carriers like crude oil or something else?

 
Is it all about crude oil?
10 years ago Professor Michael Clair said that the reason for World War III would be crude oil, natural gas, food and pure water. He must have second sight:
·         80% of Libya’s oilfields are located in the Eastern part of the country, the place where the anti-Kaddafi movement arose and was rapidly supported by the UN Security Council. The country also possesses considerable natural-gas reserves. Under the Libyan part of the Sahara there is a huge storage of fresh water 60 trillion cubic meters, a second Baikal. The Libyans built a 4.2km pipeline in order to be able to use the water.
·         Every 3rd civil war around the world is waged in the countries rich in energy sources. For comparison sake, 20 years ago these countries made up only 20% of all the armed conflicts.
·         Over the last 30 years there has been 3 full wars in the Persian Gulf, which is one of the main sources of crude oil for the rest of the world.
·         Crude oil is the most powerful weapon. Just remember 1973 when the OPEC refused to supply oil to the US and Europe because they supported Israel in the Arab-Israeli conflict, thus making the Western powers find themselves in a rather difficult situation. Crude oil is the blood of the contemporary economy. The lack or absence of oil may suspend the work of major industrial enterprises, affecting even a country’s agricultural sector, which means lack of food.
It should be reminded that during WW2 Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because the US had suspended the oil supplies, thus trying to punish Japan for the intervention in China. As the result the US found itself involved into a major war in the Pacific Ocean while Japan invaded Indonesia (at that time it was a Dutch colony rich in crude oil).
 
The best way to come out the crisis?
Masterforex-V Academy experts assume that the expected WW III is an attempt to come out of the crisis:
·         The Great Depression in the USA wasn’t over in 1932 when Roosevelt came to power.The US economy managed to reach the previous production volume only when the country got involved in the 2nd World War.It means that the war industry saved the national economy. The Dow Jones Index reached the pre-crisis value only after WW2.
·         The famous American analyst Charles Nenner, who predicted the collapse of the US housing and stock markets 2 years before it actually happened, anticipates another economic collapse and a major war, which will take place until the end of 2011. He says that the war will start when the Dow Jones Index value exceeds 13.000. Now it is around 12200.
The history of the humankind shows that wars are one of the most effective ways to come out of political and economic crises.
 
….or maybe it is about geopolitics?
 
Some experts say that the US wants to change the existing geopolitical situation. Edward Luttwak, an American military strategist and historian, says the world is coming back to the old bipolar world (as during the cold war). Only this time the USA opposes China:
 
·         The military campaign aimed at overthrowing Kaddafi is a serious blow for China, which used to have about 50 big-scale projects in Libya (from oil production to construction of roads). The military actions in Libya forced China to close almost all of the projects and evacuate 30000 employees. The Chinese authorities say the damage is estimated at hundreds of million yuan.
·         For many years China has been “conquering” the African continent on the sly. The developing Chinese economy needs more and more crude oil. That is why China has become a strategic partner of those countries that are rich in crude oil (Libya, Nigeria, Angola). In order to resist the Chinese expansion in 2007 the US created AFRICOM. 49 African countries joined it. Libya wasn’t one of them.
·         Hwo suffers most of all from the current (and future) armed conflicts in the Arab East? The Arabs themselves and the EU, another dangerous rival of Washington. The main part of the crude oil that is delivered in the EU, comes from the Persian Gulf. Italy used to produce 14M tons of oil a year and to pump 8Bcf of natural gas through the underwater pipeline called Greenstream. Do you remember Warren Buffet’s words about the inevitable collapse of Euro? Maybe he knows something that the global community still doesn’t know?
·         At the same time the US imports crude oil mainly from its neighbors on the Western hemisphere (Venezuela, Canada, Mexico), not from the Arab East. Those who anticipate WW3 say that it will take place in Asia and North Africa.
·         Syria may become the next country where the US will initiate mass protests (another country where the leader is not Washington’s puppet). Syria is the location of the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean Sea.
 
Yet those who are going to start another major war, no matter what goals they pursue should remember Albert Einstein’s worlds: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones”.
 
Market Leader and Masterforex-V Academy would appreciate if you could share your opinion on the matter:
Is there any probability of the Arab conflicts turning into World War III?
·         No, there isn’t. The threat of use of nuclear arms will cool the hotheads.
·         Yes, it is highly probable.

 

 

You are free to discuss this article here:   forum for traders and investors

 

Text: Alexander Dynnichenko
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Trump’s Policies Make USA Lose Their Leading Position in the West

More and more international experts are concerned about Donald Trump’s policies. Some of them are concerned that because of him and his actions, the USA may lose their leading role in the Western world.  

 

 

According to Fareed Zakaria, political expert, CNN host and columnist for The Washington Post, Trump’s recent political decisions have made the European Union so united that Putin could never have dreamed of. Even though he is not going to make the Western world collapse, the USA may still lose the number-one status in the Western world.

Publication date: 31 July 12:09 PM

Does China Oust Russia From Central Asia?

As the situation in Afghanistan is getting worse, this is raising a lot of concerns in the international expert community. The Islamic terrorist threat may spread from there to Russian and China, they say.

 

 
According to a Norwegian observer for Dagbladet, there exist 5 countries in Central Asia that can be seen as potential threats to Russia and China. The thing is, the Islamic terrorism may well spread from those countries to their neighbors. They say that Afghanistan is now the biggest potential threat since the amount of armed conflicts in the country are getting more and more frequent and tough. As Taliban (the local terrorist organization) is said to be sponsored and suppled with arm and ammo, the USA seems to be putting the blame for this on Russia.
Publication date: 29 July 11:53 AM

China Invests Heavily In Africa

You probably know that has been investing in a number of countries of strategical importance. There is a lot of African countries on the list. According to several observers, Chinese banks have given such countries over 77 billion euros since 2000.

 

 
Not so long ago, there was a documentary broadcast on the national TV. The documentary is about a railway line in Kenya built by China Road and Bridge Corporation. It praises Chinese engineers and tells the viewer that the Chinese government is ready to support African countries on their way to economic growth.
Publication date: 24 July 11:46 PM

Chinese Economy Is Way Stronger Than Trump Thinks

The Chinese economy has got much stronger. It can now even be compared to the American one, which is viewed to be the world’s strongest economy. Washington clearly underestimates Beijing when saying that the China has been flourishing in the international markets exclusively at the expense of unfair trade.

 

 
Publication date: 23 July 10:48 AM

British Start Getting Disappointed with Brexit, Soros Says

Last year’s Brexit referendum has become a major challenge for the British government, George Soros says. He says that more and more British citizens start getting disappointed with the Brexit.

 

 
The world-famous financier and CEO of Soros Fund Management assumes that now the economic reality starts revealing the real state of affairs and debunk their delusions related to the happy living outside of the European Union. More than 12 months ago, the advocates of the Brexit scenario were trying to persuade people that this choice won’t affect people’s standards of living. Well, since then, the government has been trying to implement this promise at the expense of increasing the internal debt.
Publication date: 14 July 02:40 AM

Two Reasons Why Russia Keeps Losing Influence Over Post-Soviet States

After the USSR ceased to exist, the Kremlin was counting on retaining their influence in the region. However, the truth is that Russia as the major successor to the USSR has been losing its influence over the remaining post-soviet states. There are 2 reasons for that.

 

 
According to the related report recently published by private American analytic company Stratfor, there is a range of new tendencies making it difficult for Russia to stay influential in the post-soviet region, especially when it comes to Ukraine. The two major reasons for that are believed to be the declining role of the Russian language in the region as well as the existing threats of mass protest inside Russia itself.
Publication date: 06 July 01:42 PM

Business with China: New Reality after Blocking Yandex and VK in Ukraine

Ukrainian President Petr Poroshenko has expanded the list of sanctions against individuals and legal entities from Russia. To be more specific, Ukraine imposed sanctions on several Russian online companies, including Yandex, which is Russia’s biggest IT company, as well as some other popular web services like VK, Odnoklassniki, and Mail.ru Group. According to the presidential decree, Ukrainian Internet providers are forbidden to grant access to those blacklisted websites.

Publication date: 06 July 01:13 AM

China Doesn’t Need Russian Gas and Pipelines

Don’t you remember how a couple of years ago Gazprom cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine a number of times. By the way, Ukraine alone used to buy 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas back then. Now Ukraine buys no natural gas form Russia at all. Apparently, Moscow keeps on looking for other outlets. There has been a lot of buzz about China as a new big outlet for Russian natural gas and crude oil. It turns out that two new pipelines should have transferred to China some 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year. Yet, this was the maximum amount, and it couldn’t clearly make up for the export of natural gas to Ukraine.

Publication date: 05 July 11:15 AM

Mass Media on Forthcoming Trump-Putin Meeting

For those of you who don’t know, the first official meeting between Donald trump and Vladimir Putin has been confirmed. It’s planned for July 7, during the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

 

 
Some observers say that the White House did the Kremlin a favor by being the first one confirming the official meeting during the G20 summit. This announcement helped the sided to get of the rumors around the situation and helped Moscow to save face in the Russian media space.
Publication date: 05 July 06:24 AM

Putin and Trump Part Ways

According to The Daily Telegraph observer Con Coughlin, even if Donald Trump used to seek ways to improve the relations with Russia, today he is probably going to really abandon this idea. The thing is that not so long ago, the U.S. hit a Syrian fight jet, the one belonging to Bashar Asad’s troop. Since Putin and Asad are allies, this fact is definitely going to affect the process of improving the U.S.-Russia relations, and probably suspend this process for the near future.
 
Publication date: 29 June 11:50 PM