Heroes of Ukraine

«Market Leader» - news and previews making you rich.

Monday, 22 May 09:26 (GMT -05:00)



Business And Politics News

Can the military campaign in Libya be considered the beginning of World War III?

Libya

 

As soon as the Western powers started a military campaign in Libya against Muammar Kaddafi, the famous Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovski called it the beginning of World War III. His statements are usually not considered as serious, but this time numerous experts seem to share this point of view. For example, last year George Soros said that the current situation resembled the 1930s. Probably he meant not only the Great Depression but also the series of local conflicts (Spain, Abissinia etc) preceding World War II.
 

Should we really get ready for another major war? If so, then what is going to be the reason: energy carriers like crude oil or something else?

 
Is it all about crude oil?
10 years ago Professor Michael Clair said that the reason for World War III would be crude oil, natural gas, food and pure water. He must have second sight:
·         80% of Libya’s oilfields are located in the Eastern part of the country, the place where the anti-Kaddafi movement arose and was rapidly supported by the UN Security Council. The country also possesses considerable natural-gas reserves. Under the Libyan part of the Sahara there is a huge storage of fresh water 60 trillion cubic meters, a second Baikal. The Libyans built a 4.2km pipeline in order to be able to use the water.
·         Every 3rd civil war around the world is waged in the countries rich in energy sources. For comparison sake, 20 years ago these countries made up only 20% of all the armed conflicts.
·         Over the last 30 years there has been 3 full wars in the Persian Gulf, which is one of the main sources of crude oil for the rest of the world.
·         Crude oil is the most powerful weapon. Just remember 1973 when the OPEC refused to supply oil to the US and Europe because they supported Israel in the Arab-Israeli conflict, thus making the Western powers find themselves in a rather difficult situation. Crude oil is the blood of the contemporary economy. The lack or absence of oil may suspend the work of major industrial enterprises, affecting even a country’s agricultural sector, which means lack of food.
It should be reminded that during WW2 Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because the US had suspended the oil supplies, thus trying to punish Japan for the intervention in China. As the result the US found itself involved into a major war in the Pacific Ocean while Japan invaded Indonesia (at that time it was a Dutch colony rich in crude oil).
 
The best way to come out the crisis?
Masterforex-V Academy experts assume that the expected WW III is an attempt to come out of the crisis:
·         The Great Depression in the USA wasn’t over in 1932 when Roosevelt came to power.The US economy managed to reach the previous production volume only when the country got involved in the 2nd World War.It means that the war industry saved the national economy. The Dow Jones Index reached the pre-crisis value only after WW2.
·         The famous American analyst Charles Nenner, who predicted the collapse of the US housing and stock markets 2 years before it actually happened, anticipates another economic collapse and a major war, which will take place until the end of 2011. He says that the war will start when the Dow Jones Index value exceeds 13.000. Now it is around 12200.
The history of the humankind shows that wars are one of the most effective ways to come out of political and economic crises.
 
….or maybe it is about geopolitics?
 
Some experts say that the US wants to change the existing geopolitical situation. Edward Luttwak, an American military strategist and historian, says the world is coming back to the old bipolar world (as during the cold war). Only this time the USA opposes China:
 
·         The military campaign aimed at overthrowing Kaddafi is a serious blow for China, which used to have about 50 big-scale projects in Libya (from oil production to construction of roads). The military actions in Libya forced China to close almost all of the projects and evacuate 30000 employees. The Chinese authorities say the damage is estimated at hundreds of million yuan.
·         For many years China has been “conquering” the African continent on the sly. The developing Chinese economy needs more and more crude oil. That is why China has become a strategic partner of those countries that are rich in crude oil (Libya, Nigeria, Angola). In order to resist the Chinese expansion in 2007 the US created AFRICOM. 49 African countries joined it. Libya wasn’t one of them.
·         Hwo suffers most of all from the current (and future) armed conflicts in the Arab East? The Arabs themselves and the EU, another dangerous rival of Washington. The main part of the crude oil that is delivered in the EU, comes from the Persian Gulf. Italy used to produce 14M tons of oil a year and to pump 8Bcf of natural gas through the underwater pipeline called Greenstream. Do you remember Warren Buffet’s words about the inevitable collapse of Euro? Maybe he knows something that the global community still doesn’t know?
·         At the same time the US imports crude oil mainly from its neighbors on the Western hemisphere (Venezuela, Canada, Mexico), not from the Arab East. Those who anticipate WW3 say that it will take place in Asia and North Africa.
·         Syria may become the next country where the US will initiate mass protests (another country where the leader is not Washington’s puppet). Syria is the location of the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean Sea.
 
Yet those who are going to start another major war, no matter what goals they pursue should remember Albert Einstein’s worlds: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones”.
 
Market Leader and Masterforex-V Academy would appreciate if you could share your opinion on the matter:
Is there any probability of the Arab conflicts turning into World War III?
·         No, there isn’t. The threat of use of nuclear arms will cool the hotheads.
·         Yes, it is highly probable.

 

 

You are free to discuss this article here:   forum for traders and investors

 

Text: Alexander Dynnichenko
Add to blog
Got a question? – Ask it here »
 

Macron Will Shift the Balance of Powers in the Normandy Format in Favor of Ukraine

For those of you who don’t know, the so-called Normandy format was created to resolve the difficult situation in the East of Ukraine. France is one of the participants. As you know, Emmanuel Macron has recently won the presidential election in France. This means that he is going to become the successor to Francois Hollande as President of France, participating in the Normandy format as the French representative.

 

 
Publication date: 17 May 08:48 AM

Stratfor Gave Prediction for the next 3 Months

The other day, Stratfor released another quarterly prediction for the global geopolitical situation.
 

 

According to the report, the USA will try to settle the nuclear dispute with North Korea. Europe will be waiting for the results of the presidential election in France. Russia will dive even deeper into the local problems. The OPEC will extend the Vienna Accord aimed at cutting oil production.
 
Publication date: 10 May 10:26 AM

The Price of Defeating North Korea May Be Too High

These days, more and more experts start talking about a possible war against North Korea. However, they also say that the price of defeating North Korea may be too high for the USA and its allies.

 

 
For now, North Korea seems to have made considerable progress in creating nuclear arms, which is something that worries the entire world, especially as North Korea keeps on making harsh statements and threatening the USA, South Korea and Japan. The recent test launch of ballistic missiles in North Korea are now treated as wake-up call and real threat. Theoretically, there is a threat that North Korea may hit American military facilities located in Japan and South Korea. As the US Navy is moving closer to the Korean peninsula, international observers are talking about the possibility of another armed conflict between North and South Korea, even though both of them are still at war with each other.
Publication date: 26 April 01:16 PM

Sixteen Structural Reforms Is the Cost of the Next IMF Tranche to Ukraine

Anders Aslund, a Swedish economist and a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, commented on the current and future cooperation between the IMF and Ukraine. He claims that Kiev will have to implement at least 16 structural reforms in order to get another tranche from the International Monetary Fund. He also explained why the IMF is still cooperating with Ukraine.

Publication date: 26 April 11:01 AM

Putin Underestimated Ukrainians When Invading Ukraine, Atlantic Council

American private institution Atlantic Council assumes that Vladimir Putin underestimated the Ukrainians when invading Ukraine.
 

 

They say that the hybrid war started by Russia in Ukraine has been going on for the 4th year. There were times when nobody believed that Ukraine would hold on even for 4 weeks. The thing is, the Crimea was annexed without any fight, which made international experts believe that Ukraine was weak and completely dependent on Russia. This stand point used to be popular in Moscow as well. Some Russian politicians expected a complete victory in a couple of months, but back than Ukraine was vulnerable after the revolution, which lead to the end of Yanukovich’s regime, while the temporary government was lacking legitimacy to seriously resist Russia. Back then, Russia got a chance to occupy the rest of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin seemed to be encouraged by the success in the Crimea.
Publication date: 26 April 08:37 AM

Experts on Statements Made by Russian Officials about Russian Economic Recovery

International experts have commented on the recent statements made by several Russian officials about some economic recovery in Russia. They say that the weak economic growth isn’t backed by higher standards of living in the Russian Federation.

Publication date: 23 April 02:05 AM

USA Today Names the Reasons Why the USA Is Concerned about the Situation in Ukraine

USA Today has named the reasons why the United states should be concerned about the armed conflict in the East of Ukraine.

 

Previously, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson asked his European colleagues why American taxpayers should be concerned about the situation in Ukraine. The answer came from his French colleague, who said that the United States should be interested in a strong Europe. On top of that, there are some other reasons why the USA shouldn’t stop thinking about Ukraine.

Publication date: 21 April 12:00 PM

Trump's Plan on Syria: Russia to Stay in Syria, Asad Has to Leave

At this point, several media sources, including Associated Press, report they know the details of the offer brought by Rex Tillerson to Moscow during his official visit. Now, everyone seems to be wondering what exactly Rex Tillerson and Sergey Lavrov discussed during their meeting in Moscow.
 

 

First of all, the sources claim that the USA is ready to unite forces with Russia to destroy the ISIS once and for all. Secondly, Bashar Asad has to quit anyway. He will be even allowed to go to Russia or Iran to avoid prosecution. Thirdly, a temporary government need to be established in Syria to back stabilization and holding a democratic election in Syria. Russia can stay in Syria to back security but they shouldn’t interfere with the local politics.
Publication date: 18 April 11:34 PM

Today's Russia-US Relations Are Worse Than During Obama’s Administration

At this point, the bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington are even worse than they used to be during Obama’s administration. This is what President Putin thinks on the matter.

 

 
Even though the Russian president thinks so, he hasn’t commented on the details of this degradation in the bilateral relations between the 2 superpowers. He assumes that the level of trust between the United States and the Russian Federation has dropped, especially on the military level.
 
Publication date: 18 April 11:05 PM

Will North Korea Become Another Syria for the USA?

The latest events in Syria made many international observers change their mind regarding President Trump. The current conditions also show that getting rid of North-Korean leader Kim Jong Un may also become a major goal for President Trump.

 

 
The news that U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson suddenly reversed and moved to the Western part of the Pacific Ocean in the direction of the Korean Peninsula attracted the interest of the international community. Given the 59 missiles launched to hit a Syrian airbase a couple of weeks ago, this maneuver of the aircraft carrier does raise a lot of concerns.
Publication date: 18 April 03:29 AM