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Friday, 9 October 02:39 (GMT -05:00)

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Can the military campaign in Libya be considered the beginning of World War III?



As soon as the Western powers started a military campaign in Libya against Muammar Kaddafi, the famous Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovski called it the beginning of World War III. His statements are usually not considered as serious, but this time numerous experts seem to share this point of view. For example, last year George Soros said that the current situation resembled the 1930s. Probably he meant not only the Great Depression but also the series of local conflicts (Spain, Abissinia etc) preceding World War II.

Should we really get ready for another major war? If so, then what is going to be the reason: energy carriers like crude oil or something else?

Is it all about crude oil?
10 years ago Professor Michael Clair said that the reason for World War III would be crude oil, natural gas, food and pure water. He must have second sight:
·         80% of Libya’s oilfields are located in the Eastern part of the country, the place where the anti-Kaddafi movement arose and was rapidly supported by the UN Security Council. The country also possesses considerable natural-gas reserves. Under the Libyan part of the Sahara there is a huge storage of fresh water 60 trillion cubic meters, a second Baikal. The Libyans built a 4.2km pipeline in order to be able to use the water.
·         Every 3rd civil war around the world is waged in the countries rich in energy sources. For comparison sake, 20 years ago these countries made up only 20% of all the armed conflicts.
·         Over the last 30 years there has been 3 full wars in the Persian Gulf, which is one of the main sources of crude oil for the rest of the world.
·         Crude oil is the most powerful weapon. Just remember 1973 when the OPEC refused to supply oil to the US and Europe because they supported Israel in the Arab-Israeli conflict, thus making the Western powers find themselves in a rather difficult situation. Crude oil is the blood of the contemporary economy. The lack or absence of oil may suspend the work of major industrial enterprises, affecting even a country’s agricultural sector, which means lack of food.
It should be reminded that during WW2 Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because the US had suspended the oil supplies, thus trying to punish Japan for the intervention in China. As the result the US found itself involved into a major war in the Pacific Ocean while Japan invaded Indonesia (at that time it was a Dutch colony rich in crude oil).
The best way to come out the crisis?
Masterforex-V Academy experts assume that the expected WW III is an attempt to come out of the crisis:
·         The Great Depression in the USA wasn’t over in 1932 when Roosevelt came to power.The US economy managed to reach the previous production volume only when the country got involved in the 2nd World War.It means that the war industry saved the national economy. The Dow Jones Index reached the pre-crisis value only after WW2.
·         The famous American analyst Charles Nenner, who predicted the collapse of the US housing and stock markets 2 years before it actually happened, anticipates another economic collapse and a major war, which will take place until the end of 2011. He says that the war will start when the Dow Jones Index value exceeds 13.000. Now it is around 12200.
The history of the humankind shows that wars are one of the most effective ways to come out of political and economic crises.
….or maybe it is about geopolitics?
Some experts say that the US wants to change the existing geopolitical situation. Edward Luttwak, an American military strategist and historian, says the world is coming back to the old bipolar world (as during the cold war). Only this time the USA opposes China:
·         The military campaign aimed at overthrowing Kaddafi is a serious blow for China, which used to have about 50 big-scale projects in Libya (from oil production to construction of roads). The military actions in Libya forced China to close almost all of the projects and evacuate 30000 employees. The Chinese authorities say the damage is estimated at hundreds of million yuan.
·         For many years China has been “conquering” the African continent on the sly. The developing Chinese economy needs more and more crude oil. That is why China has become a strategic partner of those countries that are rich in crude oil (Libya, Nigeria, Angola). In order to resist the Chinese expansion in 2007 the US created AFRICOM. 49 African countries joined it. Libya wasn’t one of them.
·         Hwo suffers most of all from the current (and future) armed conflicts in the Arab East? The Arabs themselves and the EU, another dangerous rival of Washington. The main part of the crude oil that is delivered in the EU, comes from the Persian Gulf. Italy used to produce 14M tons of oil a year and to pump 8Bcf of natural gas through the underwater pipeline called Greenstream. Do you remember Warren Buffet’s words about the inevitable collapse of Euro? Maybe he knows something that the global community still doesn’t know?
·         At the same time the US imports crude oil mainly from its neighbors on the Western hemisphere (Venezuela, Canada, Mexico), not from the Arab East. Those who anticipate WW3 say that it will take place in Asia and North Africa.
·         Syria may become the next country where the US will initiate mass protests (another country where the leader is not Washington’s puppet). Syria is the location of the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean Sea.
Yet those who are going to start another major war, no matter what goals they pursue should remember Albert Einstein’s worlds: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones”.
Market Leader and Masterforex-V Academy would appreciate if you could share your opinion on the matter:
Is there any probability of the Arab conflicts turning into World War III?
·         No, there isn’t. The threat of use of nuclear arms will cool the hotheads.
·         Yes, it is highly probable.



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Text: Alexander Dynnichenko
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