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40 warning signals of the disintegration of Russia by Walter Derzko: ridiculous or serious?



Leading media companies of the USA, Canada, Russia and even Baltic states took started discussing “40 warning signals of the end of modern Russia”, which have been recently published by the Canadian political scientist Walter Derzkoin his blog. His arguments at once became “scientific” due to the 40 criteria and made a bomb effect in Ru-net. How “scientific” and serious are these 40 (a mystical number for Christians) criteria? Let’s try to analyze it together and make conclusions and forecasts.
Walter Derzko. What makes him think that the end of Russia is near?
Let’s consider the criteria. If at least one of interrelated “arguments” in the common chain turns out to be false, then the whole theory will be disproved. The same holds true for the symptoms of the incurable disease discovered by the political scientist form Canada:
1) the Resolved corruption and a bribery wide circulation. I never could understand, why the street booth should have the bookkeeper even.
Let’s leave without comments Walter Derzko’s ability to comprehend simple life situations of the distant Russia. “Resolved corruption and a bribery wide circulation” is an idea which is very close to the Russian reality, in spite of episodic struggle with “werewolves in shoulder straps”, the articles of Criminal Code of the Russian Federation and the “centuries-old traditions” of the so called “feedings” which existed everywhere (except Canada) till the17th century. The corruption exists in dozens of countries, and it is surprising why its existing means the end of Russia but not Italia, Ukraine, Albania, Romania, Egypt and dozens of other countries. It is surprising that the Canadian political scientist who lives in the country with no corruption has never thought about that. It is the country where corruption was episodically eliminated (for example under Stalin).Why is Russia still alive?
2) Larceny of state ownership and funds by means of the capitalism which is based on a close acquaintance with masterful men.
·        This is the same corruption, when we talk about state-property privatization, when some structures get preferences. Economic reforms of Chubais and Gaidar were carried out by this principle. And “close acquaintance” with authorities exists in dozens of countries including Canada and the USA, where senators lobby the interests of different corporations. It has no difference when we talk about the collapse of the state, whether it is Russia or America.
·        Not to mention Mexico, the UAE and other countries where ties of relationships are revered. . It is interesting to what extent the nepotism should grow so that Russia would collapse while Georgia and UEA would stay safe.
3) Unlimited having washed money.
4) Sending of the capital and profits of oligarchs in offshore zones: Cyprus, Switzerland, Belize, England.
5) Flight of the capital from Russia: 25 billion dollars.
6) Growing kumovstvo
7) Export of corruption to EU, Canada and the USA (Russian mafia).
8) not Pursued / approved mafia activity and gangsterism in Russia.
·        If there were no Russian mafia these countries would never know what the bribe is. The Italian, Romanian, Japanese and Chinese mafia are evidently had no idea what the “corruption export” is.
·        Probably the Canadian blogger should visit Mexico to get a clear view what “domestic gangsterism” is. And again, how does it concern the end of Russia or listed countries?
9) Silent support by the government of smuggler activity, drugs and human traffic.
It is a strange statement. It seems that Walter got infrequent opportunity to see the Russian cabinet of ministers silently watching gangsters smuggling, selling narcotics and slave trading.
10) the Demographic collapse.
Why collapse? For example in the Baltic countries the demographic situation is the worst in Europe, but nobody says there is going to be some demographic collapse there.
11) Easing of military control on empire periphery.
12) Conflicts on periphery.
13) Army not in a status to pay utilities or the salary to recruits, hunger strikes concerning the salary.
Firstly, there are no strikes in the army. Secondly, the majority of military men in the CIS countries envy their Russian colleagues and there are plans to form the Russian version of the Foreign Legion.
14) Deduction of salaries of government officials.
According to the 1st point, they do not need to worry about such trifles.
15) Absence of independent police and widespread corruption.
16) Lawlessness, koncentrirovаnie polices on extremists and political opposition instead of gangsters who are authorised to do everything.
17) Absence of independent justice and corruption.
18) Instructions from above, pressure upon police, tax departments, justice and the personnel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
19) Illegal use of administrative resources.
·        Independent police is a military junta.
·        It is better for the author to visit Mexico, Brazil and SAR and get to know their criminal situation and to see what their police concentrate on.
·        Admin resource: What about recounting of votes in the state, where the governor is a brother of the former president Bush? Or the third tour of the presidential elections in the Ukraine? In such case many countries would come to an end.
20) Cyber-attacks, information wars, network on-line provokers for protection of an existing order, terrorist operations under another's flag as a pretext for the announcement of state of emergency.
Do you mean American, Japanese, Indian and Israeli hackers are certainly “children” as compared with Russian ones? The second thesis is not clear at all.
21) Political opposition and critics oshel'movyvаjutsja as extremists and terrorists. Murders of the journalists acting with criticism.
Out of 105 journalists who died worldwide during 2010, only 5 died in Russia. The situation is worse in Mexico, Pakistan, Iraq, Philippines and even in Honduras.
22) Comprehensive embraces of investigation of the government - FSB (earlier it was called as KGB).
*The functions of intelligence are carried out by the Internal Intelligence Service of the General Staff of the Russia Army
*The Canadians and Americans don’t think that special services can control them even after the 9/11.
23) religion Growth as political weapon, for example, Cyril or «Russian World», etc.
·        It is rather an ambiguous perspective for the country that didn’t have any religion for 70 years. What to say about Iran, Saudi-Arabia, Poland, Spain, and Vatican! On the contrary, the church (unlike religious sects) plays a role of the enforcer of the state ideology, not its terminator.
24) the Policy of game in interdictions.
25) Fixation of the prices for the foodstuffs.
26) Fixation of the prices for consumer goods.
It is a pity that the Russians don’t knowt that.
27) Low (below $100 for barrel) or reduction of the prices for oil / gas and consumer goods bankrupt the prices / again will make bankrupt the government (that straw which has punched a ridge to a camel in 1989 and 1991).
In 90s the oil cost less.
28) Private support of oligarchs and large business, ignoring public, average and small business (for example, the small business clamped between health inspectors, demanding a bribe, and clumsy banks in which money hangs).
29) the Uncontrolled expenditure of fund of social security, the government will go bankrupt, absence of reserves.
30) Growing Russian nationalism and provoked national intensity.
And what about India, China and Brazil? These are the countries with growing economies, the situation in other countries is even worse.
31) Potential tax revolt in 2011.
32) Manifestations of protest and, probably, All-Russia strike in 2011.
No comments
33) Deceits and provocations.
34) Infinite empty promises and absence of actions or reforms, or new models of a business management.
It exists everywhere.
35) Imbalance, paradoxes and contradictions (for example, multi-billion in dollars Putin's palace against high indicators of poverty, oligarchs evade from taxes by sending of profits in an offshore or understating have arrived in tax declarations, Russia plans to modernise the fleet, however it does not have elementary hoses, fire-engines and pumps to struggle with forest fires by summer of 2010, polices and the Ministry of Internal Affairs is ordered to concentrate on dissidents, instead of gangsters, tyrants, thieves and corruption).
*all the points of “scientific criteria” of the Canadian political scientist can be included into one: corruption. It is strange why “unrestrained money laundering”? And secondly, it is an accusation addressed to the countries which help to launder them. Or it is a hint that there will be no money in Russia soon. It is strange that such hazard hasn’t appeared earlier.
*$25 billion - the figure is outdated (given in 2009), the capitals are dynamically returning back to Russia now.
36) Failures of intelligence services.
It has never destroyed any country.
37) Loss Direct foreign capital investments (it is added: investors last year have returned from Russia net capital at a rate of 38,3 billion dollars, agree to the data of the central bank)
38) Wild unreal hopes of economic growth (for example that this year Russian economy ostensibly can grow on 5 % as a result of internal consumption, building and capital inflows - it was declared at conference in London by Yaroslav Lissovolik, the group economist of the Moscow branch of Dojche-bank (Bloomberg)
And what capital there will begin to flow? (Point 37 see above. Investors have deduced from Russia net capital in 38, 3 billion dollars, agree to the Central Bank data.
39) the youth Captured by system unemployment becomes more and more aggressive that leads to demonstrations, collisions and revolts. "Ours" not in a status to supervise Russia
Why do Greece, Spain and Romania still exist? Or does anybody doubt upon the existence of Egypt?
40) In Russian army the lack of hydrocarbons and food of soldiers, see also article «Ten years putinizmа».
Firstly, it is carbohydrates, not hydrocarbons. Secondly, has Walter Derzko ever seen what Chinese soldiers eat? Why hasn’t China disintegrated?
According to Eugene Olhovsky, the head of the Canadian Association of Traders and Investors, Masterforex-V Academy
1)    The Western political scientists try to imagine themselves to be Russian and deduce a behavior model of living in Russia. They would raise a “religious rebellion”, “all Russian strike” and “armed revolt” for the “lack of hydrocarbons in the food of soldiers”.
2)    According to the laws of political science, the collapse of a country can be initiated “from the top” (as it was in 1991 in the former USSR) or by means of “revolutionary situation” in the country, which probably may not grow into a revolution.
*the Kremlin has no supporters of disintegrating the country.
*there is no revolutionary situation to initiate some kind of revolution as written by Walter Derzko.
3)    Walter Derzko (and many of his colleagues from the USA and EU) doesn’t know how funny and silly they are in the eyes of many people (both Russian people and politicianrs).
Because of such silly conclusions, which are far from reality, American and European politicians get down into the gutter as they don’t understand the CIS reality, as it was during the election “game” played by the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko together with Kremlin - You can find the details in the articles “Belarus: discomfiture of the West and the victory of Lukashenko and Moscow”. The article is about how the EU foreign ministers believed Western political scientists but not the experts of Masterforex-V Academy and Market Leader. They didn’t understand that Lukashenko was playing with the West in advance of the presidential elections.
4)    All the 40 criteria of the Canadian political scientist look like a provocation:
*the points are artificially brought to the number of 40, mystical for every Orthodox Russian.
*many problems of modern Russia are listed correctly, but conclusions of the inevitable collapse are implicitly farfetched, as many countries suffer the same problems, which hinder their further development (corruption, absence of democratic values and liberties etc.), but the countries don’t collapse for such reasons.
*The 40 warning signals were reprinted not only by some internet media but by numerous Russian patriotic, liberal and even extremist anti-governmental sites.
* Walter Derzko shouldn’t discuss the topics, which fall under Criminal Code of the country he writes about, infringing on the territorial integrity of the state.
Query: what is your attitude towards the “scientific criteria” of the “40 warning signals…”by Walter Derzko?
*I support the main points
*This is ridiculous and far from the Russian reality
*I consider it as a provocation, falling under the article of the Russian Criminal Code.
*I don’t care
The list of 40 criteria is provided by the following source:



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