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Foreign exchange market 
IUFT: Forex Brokers Offer Spread-Back
EURUSD: Eurozone’s External Trade Boosts
Lower Oil Prices Contribute To Stronger Dollar
Westpac: New Zealand Dollar Keeps Losing Value
NAB: Australian Dollar Will Continue Weakening
Barclays: Swiss Franc Will Continue Weakening
IUFT: Forex Brokers Offer Spread-Back
EURUSD: Eurozone’s External Trade Boosts
Lower Oil Prices Contribute To Stronger Dollar
Westpac: New Zealand Dollar Keeps Losing Value
NAB: Australian Dollar Will Continue Weakening
Barclays: Swiss Franc Will Continue Weakening
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American roller coaster or why the U.S.A. prospers while the rest world expects the default of the last super state.
28 February 11:21 AM
Analytical department of the “Market Leader” magazine and the U.S. Association of traders and investors headed by Rasul Zhalalov are investigating the situation to find out the main issue – will the U.S.A. collapse? On the one hand, mass media all around the world anticipate the coming default. On the other hand, the world community is fighting the second wave of crisis by helping the U.S. first of all. This is achieved by devaluing the national currencies. May be the scenario of the American economy that getting into dust has no alternative?
In the recent years it has become an old story to speak about the forthcoming economic collapse of the U.S. Dozens of books like «Deny of the empire?” or “End of American era” and movies (the brightest one by Peter Joseph “Zeitgeist”) has recently become public.
Some prophets like a British columnist Chen Akia foreseeing the nearest default of the U.S. that is to follow the way of the U.S.S.R. or Igor Panarin, a Russian professor, who anticipates the U.S. to be divided into six parts and 0.67 ruble per USD in 2010 were discussed by the professional traders and investors of Masterforex-V Academy not long ago.And so, every year the U.S. is forecasted to follow the way of the super states like the Rome Empire, Holland and the U.K. And now, the U.S. President Barak Obama stated his nation should be cautious in order to not lose the world leadership.
Bad times. No doubts, the U.S. is not living in its best times now:
- increasing unemployment above 10%,
- budget deficit of $1,400 billion (10.8% of GDP, a possible critical line of the debt),
- tremendous inland debt (the Government debt of $12,000 billion, or 88% of GDP) which is growing by a quarter per annum, which turned the state into the largest debtor. Every U.S. citizen is owing 40,000$ to the rest of the world,
- significant devaluation of USD. It lose a quarter of its value since 1973,
- banking sector troubles. Effective as of 9M2009, number of banks in troubles tripled y-o-y,
- demand for real estate declines from 2007,
- speed of economic growth lowers. It was -2.4% GDP growth in 2009 (frankly, the EU experienced even larger drop in GDP levels: EU at -4.2%, Germany and Japan had – 5%),
- industrial output sectors are replaced by a sick financial industry. The U.S. became a leading industrial importer, and its financial sector’s share in GDP is larger than industrial’s one since middle 1990s.
The worst has gone.
Ok, The U.S., as many others, is in trouble. Firstly, we would like to mention that this process in not irreversible. The States were in even worse situations during the Great Depression or at the Vietnam campaign but managed to hold the leading position in the world. Secondly, Barak Obama Administration is working hard on its way to fight the crisis. Probably the results do not always fit the expectations, but the official statistics show the U.S. start growing.
The fundamentals of the rescue plan of the economy are the following:
- Government support of the financial and industrial sectors by $787 billion. This led to a great rise of the monetary base.
- Tax facilities of $38 billion. 95% of the U.S. households noticed a reasonable decline in tax pressure last year.
- new jobs are created.
- large banks have to support the small businesses. Obama initiated a $30 billion transfer from the Wall Street to the local banks in order to provide loans to local businesses.
- medicine and education expenditures raised.
The experts stated the U.S. economy leave the recession and start growing by 3.5% in 4Q2009, the recession lasted two years. The main reason of the good news is consumption growth, the household expenditures increased by 3.4% which is great fact for the last two years.
Barak Obama said he was full of optimism and the worst for the U.S. had gone.
The World leadership or what’s the fundamentals of the financial centre of the world?In fact, the States have indeed very few common with a dying super state despite the forecasts of the analysts who never denies a business trip to the U.S. before writing their apocalyptic reports.
Pasul Zhalalov thinks that the States are still the major player in a wide range of basic vectors that can allow them to stay as the leader. The informational and analytical Department of Materforex-V Academy focuses your attention on the fact that the U.S. will be the super state until it controls for these factors.
Rasul Zhalalov suggests that the military and political leadership is the first factor. By now the U.S. has the most powerful army with an expected military budget of $700 billion in 2011.
- The defense budget of the EU is only 60% of the U.S. and its potential cannot reach 10% of the States level.
- The U.S.A. has 11 aircraft carriers (in contrast to 2 for Italy of the U.K., 1 for France, Spain and Russia) out of 285 marine ships of different types in the U.S. Navy. Its sky forces have 4000 aircrafts, 2000 cruise missiles and 450 intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Its possible enemies like the EU army are too young whereas the Russian army is too old to speak about them as competitors.
The Russian Federation is increasing its power but cannot compete with the U.S. fairly. It has 39% less of strategic bombardiers, 58% less missiles and 80% less submarine missile crafts than the Soviet Union had. It still has 608 carriers with 3000 nuclear missiles in the Navy and 367 silos with 1248 nuclear missiles in the land. It has also 23 thousand tanks.
China cannot be a reasonable competitor as well. It is only the third after the U.S. and the R.F. in terms of military equipment units with 1700 aircrafts, 240 nuclear carriers, 7500 tanks and 8 nuclear submarines. China has 144 marine ships but it is the only super state that has no carrier aircrafts. It will be possible to have the first one (aircrafts are the attacking military units) by 2020. It is the first in only the population of the Army – 2.3 million of officers and soldiers compared with 1.5 million U.S. warriors.
The second factor to keep the U.S. leadership is the scientific achievement. The U.S. admits it loses its leadership in this field, and Asian researchers have 2-4 times more investment in the technical progress. But still the States remains the leader in finance, research, software and internet, airspace, medicine and pharmacy, and a number of other industries.
The economic development is to be the third factor. The EU is the leader in GDP with $18 trillion, $14.4 trillion of the U.S. and $4 trillion for China in 2008, and the RF gained the second place among the European countries in 2009. At the same time we should keep in memory the fact that the EU is a union of 27 mostly developed states. This is just a union (applying the experience of Greece, Spain and Baltic countries that may collapse) whereas the U.S., the R.F. and China are unitary states with a defined vertical line of power.
The standards of the American miracle are to be the fourth factor.
The American miracle is the stylized fact in historiography. But the question of the fundamentals of the miracle is still open. The U.S. has:
- benefits from geography. The enemies are too far from the States.
- friendly neighbors. It has never increased its defense power by the expense of living standards as European and Asian countries did in the 19th and 20th centuries.
- rich mineral resources. The U.S. owns large deposits of ores, gold, oil, gas, coal and other resources.
- demographic policy. Its economy grew by inputs of cheap workers. It has 31 millions in 1860 and 300 million of habitants now. The population is growing and it is getting old slower than the European countries’ population. Its policy is targeted to increase population to 500 million in 2050.
- spirit of entrepreneurship and mind of novelty. A German sociologist M.Veber stated that the development of capitalism in the U.S. is due to Protestant faith of the colonists. This confession sees work as the action honored by the God.
- high industrial concentration. Banking capital in the U.S. is linked with the industrial plants.
- developed infrastructure. The government spends money on roads and railroads, electricity lines, phone lines etc.
- highly qualified high education.
- stable political system.
- democratic traditions that create a spirit of freedom and opportunities for the self-actualization. This all helps to solve the hardest questions by conversation.
- “ethnic house” as a result of cultural interactions. The Americans managed to accumulate the cultural experience of the former homeland citizens to solve the nation’s question (well, some extra efforts on the afroamerican questions were documented).
- federal state. A powerful federal government do not intervene significantly to the interstate problems and allow the local governments to run their policies.
What do we expect the U.S. dollar to be in the nearest future?
Analysts of the Masterforex-V Academy of trading, the best educational sourse of Forex trading in Europe according to ShowWorldFX 2009 exhibition, think that the USD is likely to go on gaining its value versus the rest world currencies at the second wave of the global financial crisis. The reason is that dollar remains the major currency in the unidirectional world with the centre in the U.S.
euro vs. dollar graph,1989-2010. “B-Yearly” wave is in process
dollar index graph, 1985-2010. a new bullish wave A-Mn3-4 after 93.0 level is crossed.
Long live the USA?
Well, there’s nothing eternal in this world. And the U.S. is not a unique chosen by the God state. One of fundamental principles of nowadays is rapidly changing forces in the world arena. The world leadership for ages cannot exit today. The CIA report “The major trends till 2025” says that the power of the States will eventually decline. And it has to leave the throne of the power one day.
The Association of Traders and Investors of Masterforex-V Academy suggests that the U.S. collapse forecasts of the experts will become true one day but it is a long way to that date.
The American Association head Rasul Zhalalov told that the U.S. is a weak super state only comparing to itself of the end of the World War II, but not weak comparing to its competitors. It looks as a falling empire to the only experts who never lived in the U.S. One can witness long lines to the U.S. Embassies all over the world, and the ambassadors can easily choose the best brains to work for the States economy. And the investors who collect data not talks on the U.S. should keep the last fact in mind.
The nearest followers (The EU, the RF, China and Japan) of the States just approach it, and fail to win in the branches which the U.S. remains the major leader in. And then, there is no alternative of the super states other than the U.S. by now.
You are free to discuss this article here: forum for traders and investors
Freedom House Releases “Freedom of the Press 2012”
Not so long ago Freedom House published its report called “Freedom of the Press 2012”. According to it, 197 countries of the world are divided into 3 groups: free, partially free and not free. Lets’ find out how objective this rating is.
Publication date: 11 May 06:40 AM
US Government Bonds Traded Within Flat
Stock exchange news. US Treasury has published a report about Small Business Lending Fund (SBLF) program for the 4th quarter of 2011. Lending has risen for over a third in comparison to the 3rd quarter and has amounted to 4.8 bln. dollars.
Publication date: 13 April 09:48 AM
Croatia: Economic And Investment Outlook.
The global financial crisis, which started in 2007 as the collapse of the US housing market, destabilized the global economy, thus diminishing the inflow of foreign investments in numerous countries around the world and affecting numerous industries, including tourism.
As for Croatia, tourism was a major “breadwinner” for the country’s economy until the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1990. The civil war almost destroyed Croatia’s tourist infrastructure. It has been recovering since 1997. Croatia is getting more and more popular with tourists…
Publication date: 05 April 03:17 PM
Tips For Investors: Is It Worth Investing In Vietnam?
As investors keep withdrawing their capital from Greece, Italy, Spain and other eurozone economies, a natural question arises: Where to invest the money?
There must be some countries around the world where a favorable investment environment is being formed, thus leading to an unexpected and powerful economic breakthrough like in Japan (1960s-1970s), China (1980s), or in Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia (1990s). One of such countries is Vietnam .
80% of Vietnam ’s territory is occupied by mountains. This is an agricultural country, with urban citizens constituting 30% of the country’s population. This is a big but relatively poor state. The GDP per capita is as low as $3100, which makes Vietnam occupy the 166th place in the global rating.
However, not everything is that gloomy. According to the Asian Association of Traders and Investors under Masterforex-V Academy, Vietnam has made a powerful economic breakthrough over the last decade, thus increasing its influence in the region. According to Bloomberg, the Vietnam economy is Asia’s 3rd most promising economy after China and India.
It is highly probable that in a couple of decades we will be talking about a “Vietnam ese economic miracle”.
What makes Vietnam so attractive for investors?
Publication date: 04 April 10:51 AM
US Investment Funds: Winners And Losers
US investment funds have always been popular with investors from around the world. Let’s look at their financial performance in Jan-Feb 2012 to determine the winners and losers.
Which US funds showed the highest gains in early 2012?
Obviously, every single investor looks for profitable investment opportunities. Last year wasn’t a good one for investment funds. Some US investment funds reported major losses. The aggregate loss reached $123B. Paulson&Co lost $ 9.6B. This is the biggest fiasco since the collapse of Long Term Capital Management.
All investors are concerned about profitability. Most investors understand that the financial world has changed forever, with super incomes sinking into oblivion. Today’s most popular investments are standard and classic assets with the average ROI of 10-20%.
The biggest winners as of February 2012:
Publication date: 27 March 11:53 AM
US Banks Passed Stress Tests
US bankin gnews. Stress tests for banks may be called one of the key moments of this week. On Tuesday FRS announced the results of stress tests for banks. Reports show that the majority of large-scale US banks are able to fulfill their obligations in extremely non-favourable economic circumstances. The situation may then develop in the following way:
Publication date: 23 March 10:16 AM
Tips For Investors: What Is True And Delusive About China’s Strength And USA’s Weakness?
As numerous economic issues become more evident, investors keep pondering on the struggle between the USA and China for the status of the world’s most powerful economy. The USA has been the most powerful economy in the world for the last 70 years (it succeeded the weakened UK after WWII), adjusting the world for its own needs (from making the US Dollar the global reserve currency to spreading “democratic values” around the world, both in politics and culture).
However, everything changes. More and more experts start questioning the USA’s ability to preserve its global leadership. Maybe it is time for China to take over the initiative?
Publication date: 19 March 04:08 PM
PAMM accounts: Whose Service is Better?
News of forex broker rating. PAMM accounts have entered the lives of traders and investors suddenly and powerfully, as they managed to involve into work at forex market even those who… do not know how to trade here. Due to PAMM accounts, even those investors that are far from technical and fundamental analysis receive a very simple and clear way for their direct and often highly profitable investments: from the long list of best traders they are to choose the ones, whose results they find satisfactory and invest their means into his account. In such a case (provided that such warranty is given by a broker company) gained profit will be automatically distributed between trader and investor on a monthly basis.
Publication date: 13 March 08:09 AM
Why is "Market Leader" Banned by Uzbekistan Government?
Uzbekistannews. For decades much was banned in the USSR, from the books of Solzhenitsyn to "Voice of America" and "Radio Liberty", and the stronger were the appeals of communist ideologists to the party consciousness of Soviet people, the more attentively sensible people were listening to and reading what was banned. No fruit is so highly desired and sweet as the one that is banned.
The government of Muslim Uzbekistan does not seem to understand this biblical truth, having recently followed "the best traditions of former USSR" and banned initially "Radio Liberty", then Wikipedia (in Uzbek), and now the leading CIS portal for traders and investors "Market Leader" after its publication, jointly with "Ozodlik Radiosi" (Radio Liberty in Uzbekistan), of analytical article "For Investors: Who is Dearer to Russia Around CIS? What are the secrets of Russian and Uzbek relationships?" What frightened President Karimov?
Publication date: 10 March 09:07 AM
Islamophobia: Real Enemy Or Western Fiction?
The leading western mass media - The Guardian, The Financial Times, The New York Times, Forbes – revealed the shocking results of the report by Triangle Centre on Terrorism and Homeland Security, which specializes in studying terrorism and national security.
According to the report, it turns out that Islamists present little threat to the US national security. In 2011 only 20 US Muslims were accused of terrorism. Out of 14 000 murders committed in the USA in 2011, none was committed by a terrorism suspect. The bottom line is that the US Islamophobic sentiments are groundless. At least this is what numerous journalists and political scientists say.
Meanwhile, Islamophobia has turned into a major concern in the USA. Muslims are more frequently treated as enemies.
Publication date: 05 March 06:52 AM